How the H-1B weighted lottery works

What the rule changed

The DHS final rule "Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions" (90 FR 60864) was published on December 29, 2025 and took effect on February 27, 2026.

Before it, every registered person had the same chance in each draw. Now each person enters the pool a number of times set by the wage level of the job offer. Every level keeps a chance. DHS contrasted this with a 2021 rule that ranked registrations strictly from Level IV down to Level I.

Entries per level

Each person counts once toward the cap, however many entries or registrations they have. When a person is selected, every employer that registered them receives a selection notice.

How the level on a registration is set

The employer submitting the registration must select the highest OEWS wage level that the offered wage equals or exceeds for the job's SOC code in the area of intended employment. OEWS is the Bureau of Labor Statistics wage survey behind the four prevailing wage levels that the Department of Labor's Office of Foreign Labor Certification (OFLC) publishes.

The rule adds four special cases:

• A wage range counts at its lowest wage.
• If the person will work in several locations, the lowest level among them applies.
• A wage below Level I counts as Level I when it is based on a legitimate prevailing wage source other than OEWS, such as a private wage survey.
• If several employers register the same person, USCIS uses the lowest level among all of those registrations.

The registration also lists the SOC code and the area that served as the basis for the level. The guide How to find your H-1B wage level walks through the lookup with real numbers.

Two draws: regular cap first, then US master's

USCIS runs the selection in two stages, and both use the same weighting.

1. The first draw picks from everyone registered, including people with a US master's degree or higher, until USCIS has the number it projects it needs for the 65,000 regular cap.
2. The second draw picks from people with a US master's or higher who were not selected in the first draw, for the 20,000 advanced-degree exemption.

A person with a US master's or higher is in both draws. Everyone else is in the first draw only. Registrations that are not selected stay on reserve for the fiscal year, and any later selection round uses the same weighted procedure.

What FY2027 showed

FY2027 registration ran from March 4 to March 19, 2026. On July 17, 2026 USCIS announced that it had received enough petitions for both caps, so there was no second selection round.

According to preliminary USCIS data reported by SHRM, about 211,600 registrations were submitted, down 38.5% from 343,981 eligible registrations for FY2026. Reports differ on whether 211,600 counts registrations or unique people.

Presidential Proclamation 11069 (September 2026) published the official composition figures:

• People with at least a US master's degree made up 66.1% of registrants, up from 45.1% for FY2026.
• Job offers at the two highest wage levels accounted for about 46.3% of selections.
• Job offers at the lowest wage level accounted for 17.8% of selections.

The proclamation attributes these shifts to the weighted selection rule and the $100,000 payment on certain H-1B petitions together. As of its September 2026 update, the USCIS registration page publishes no FY2027 registration statistics. The number of people selected and the selection rate at each level are not public.

Estimated FY2028 odds by level

H1B Math models the draw the way the rule describes it: two weighted rounds, with each person selected at most once. The base case assumes 210,000 registrations, 63% of them with a US master's, and about 1.45 selections per available visa number. The mix of wage levels is calibrated on the published FY2027 selection data. Every assumption is listed on the methodology page.

The first number in each cell is the base estimate. The range in parentheses runs from 260,000 registrations (lower odds) to 170,000 registrations (higher odds), because the size of the FY2028 pool is not known yet. These are model estimates, not USCIS figures. The calculator gives the same estimate for a specific job, area and salary.

Why the DHS table shows different numbers

The widely quoted table in the final rule projects 15%, 31%, 46% and 61% for Levels I-IV. DHS describes these as simple weighted probabilities from one pooled draw, based on 320,711 people, 94,900 selections and a wage-level mix taken from past petitions. The shortcut multiplies the Level I chance by the number of entries, as if a drawn entry went back into the pool. In the actual draw a person who has been selected cannot be selected again, so each extra entry adds a little less. On the same DHS inputs, a without-replacement estimate gives 17%, 31%, 43% and 52%, and DHS itself notes that its simulation accounting for non-replacement gives Level I a slightly higher rate. The math is on the methodology page.

Integrity rules

The level on the registration carries into the petition, and the rule backs this with denial and revocation:

• A valid registration must represent a bona fide job offer. The registrant certifies that it is offering a salary at or above the wage level selected for that SOC code and area.
• The petition must use the same SOC code as the selected registration and the labor condition application, and must offer at least the prevailing wage for the registered level in that area. USCIS may deny or revoke a petition that does not meet these requirements.
• USCIS may deny a later new or amended petition that changes the wage to an amount equal to a lower level than the one on the registration.
• USCIS may accept a change in the area of employment if the change is consistent with a bona fide job offer at the time of registration.
• The registered person cannot be substituted, and a registration cannot be transferred to another employer.

A false certification can make a registration invalid, lead to denial or revocation of the petition, and be referred to law enforcement.

H1B Math applies these published rules mechanically. It does not tell anyone which SOC code, wage or level to register. This page is general information, not legal advice, and an immigration attorney can advise on a specific case.

Sources

• Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions, final rule, full text U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 90 FR 60864, December 29, 2025; regulatory text 8 CFR 214.2(h)(8)(iii)(A)(4)-(7), (h)(8)(iii)(D)(1), (h)(10)(ii)-(iii), (h)(11)(iii)(A); preamble and regulatory impact analysis p. 60902-60948
• Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions, Federal Register document page Federal Register, FR Doc. 2025-23853, published December 29, 2025, effective February 27, 2026
• H-1B Electronic Registration Process USCIS, last updated September 21, 2026; registration attestations, selection notices, FY2026 eligible registrations, FY2027 caps reached
• FY 2027 H-1B Cap Initial Registration Period Opens on March 4 USCIS newsroom alert, January 30, 2026
• Proclamation 11069, Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers The White House, 91 FR 60497, September 23, 2026; FY2027 composition figures and the rule in effect for FY2027
• Proclamation 11069, Federal Register document page Federal Register, FR Doc. 2026-19554, September 23, 2026
• USCIS reaches FY2027 H-1B visa cap SHRM, July 22, 2026; FY2027 registration count and change from FY2026, no primary source publishes these figures
• USCIS announces FY2027 H-1B cap reached, no second selection Mintz, July 20, 2026; July 17, 2026 announcement date and no second round, the USCIS page states the caps were reached but not the date

Related guides

• How to find your H-1B wage level How the OFLC prevailing wage level for an H-1B registration is found from the job's SOC code, the work area and the offered wage, with a worked example and the special cases.
• FY2028 H-1B cap season timeline What is known about the FY2028 H-1B cap season: the rules for the registration window, the FY2027 dates as a reference, the registration fee and contents, and the wage table in effect.
• Status of the H-1B $100,000 payment and the proposed $103,265 fee A status page on the $100,000 H-1B payment under Proclamations 10973 and 11069, the court orders and pending appeals, and the proposed $103,265 fee on cap-subject petitions.